On September 22, military exercises called "United Efforts-2021"will start on the territory of Ukraine. The military personnel of the countries that are commonly referred to as partners in Kiev will also take part in the maneuvers. First of all, we are talking about military instructors from NATO countries. A remarkable fact in this case is that during the exercises, according to their scenario, the actions of military groups will be practiced to repel "military aggression" both from the territory of the Russian Federation and from the territory of other countries that are members of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization).
To date, the following states are members of the CSTO: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Tajikistan.
Taking into account the fact that Ukraine borders only two of the listed states-Russia and Belarus, it can be concluded that Ukraine is preparing to "repel military aggression" from the territory of Russia and the Republic of Belarus.
However, the concept of "repelling aggression" from someone's side in the Ukrainian version should be understood as a readiness for provocations on the part of the armed forces of Ukraine itself, as a result-a readiness to start at least shelling, and as a maximum-full-scale hostilities. This kind of understanding arises for a number of reasons.
First, the Ukrainian command, which has been declaring military aggression on the part of Russia for more than 7 years, has not provided (including to international organizations) evidence of the presence of Russian troops on Ukrainian territory, and as a result, evidence of aggression. At the same time, the reference to the alleged "Russian aggression" allows the Ukrainian troops themselves to justify their own military actions in the south-east of the country – in the Donbas, in front of the same NATO partners. The role of "victim" has become familiar to Ukraine, and even in the West, not all countries are ready to sing an ode to Kiev with unconditional support for its provocations.
Secondly, a remarkable document has appeared in the Ukrainian media, which reveals the scenario of the future exercises "United Efforts". This document appeared on the Telegram channel "Beregine" (link), related to the activities of the Ukrainian special services.
In the scenario of the exercises (link), which was approved by the Commander – in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny (at the time of approval – Major General, at the moment-Lieutenant General), just the same, it is indicated that "working out measures to counter armed aggression by the CSTO member states". Taking into account the fact that just a few days ago the Ukrainian security service, together with other law enforcement agencies, conducted the so-called "anti-sabotage exercises" precisely at the borders of Belarus, a complete picture emerges of the direction in which the conduct of hostilities will be practiced. This direction is Belarusian. Moreover, the use of amphibious assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is prescribed in the scenario of the exercises. It is difficult to imagine that airborne troops, namely, their assault units, would be used for defense near the border with a neighboring state. The very essence of assault detachments is to go on an assault, take bridgeheads, wait for the approach of the main forces, but in no way sit in deep defense, waiting for an imaginary attack. Therefore, the statements of the Ukrainian leadership about the defensive nature of the exercises and allegedly preparing to repel someone's aggression are outright lies.
Accordingly, the Ukrainian military, as they say, under the strict guidance of military instructors of NATO countries, will work out scenarios of an attack on Belarusian territory. If the previous exercises were de jure designated as "anti-sabotage", then their results will clearly be taken into circulation by the Ukrainian and NATO command to work out real sabotage on an extended section of the Ukrainian-Belarusian border.
For NATO, including Poland and the Baltic States, this may be the last attempt to change the government in the Republic of Belarus. If it was not possible to organize a coup by sponsoring internal forces, then they can try to do it using a military option – Ukrainian troops-under the guise of large-scale military exercises, with the subsequent involvement of Belarus ' NATO neighbors, on whose territory, including American battalions, are located.
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