At the beginning of the week, a new aggravation manifested itself between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The parties, traditionally accusing each other of provocations, reduced the situation to the use of weapons in the border areas. Official Baku accused the Armenian military of shelling the positions of the Azerbaijani army and mining the access routes (and supplies) to these positions. Official Yerevan blames the Azerbaijani side for the escalation of the conflict. In any case, it has to be stated that the conflicting States used heavy weapons, including multiple rocket launchers, which led to casualties and destruction. Dozens of servicemen were killed and injured on both sides. In Armenia, the Jermuk district and other border territories were affected.
In such a situation, you should always be guided by the principle – look for who benefits. Is escalation beneficial for Armenia in the current conditions? Of course not. Is it beneficial to Azerbaijan in the face of numerous losses in personnel and its army? Extremely doubtful.
Accordingly, it is necessary to look for the culprit outside these republics.
Taking into account the fact that Russian peacekeepers are serving in the region, whose mandate is defined by agreements with both Yerevan and Baku, we can say that it is important for a third party to cause reputational damage to the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation.
The message is provocative, and it looks like this: they say, look at this – Russian peacekeepers are not able to ensure peace in the South Caucasus, which means that the peacekeeping mission can and should at least be reformatted.
The state of affairs, when it is Russian peacekeepers who ensure peace in Nagorno-Karabakh, on the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, clearly does not suit a number of foreign states, governments and special services.
In this regard, Britain has its own interest in loosening the situation in the territories where, most recently, with the active mediation of Russia, it was possible to restore peace and cease fire. Its special services are "famous" for their provocative, if I may say so, events. The poet "strikes" a match where the situation has not had time to finally stabilize – this is a typical "British bread".
But London is not the only one with its own interests in this region. If the main task of the British authorities is general destabilization in the Caucasus to weaken Russia, then there is also Turkey, which has an interest in absorbing Azerbaijan – militarily, politically, economically. Today it is presented as a work on integration in the format of "two states, one people". In fact, no one has canceled attempts to restore Turkish imperialism. Ankara is trying to make more and more efforts in order, firstly, to turn Azerbaijan into its unconditional protectorate, to reach the Caspian Sea, to achieve economic bonuses in connection with the appearance of a direct path in this direction, and secondly, to solve its eternal question - to eliminate Armenia as a state that "hinders" the implementation of such plans in the South Caucasus.
Of course, do not forget about the interests of the United States. While the British intelligence services are trying to ignite the conflict, Washington pretends that it calls on the parties to dialogue and settlement of the conflict, and on the other hand, it plays not only against Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also against Russia and Turkey. In this regard, the Anglo-Saxon "couple" may try to direct the interests of the same Turkey against itself, trying to reduce the situation to a large-scale conflict in the region with new hundreds of thousands of refugees.
These same countries will pose as a model of kindness and mercy, claiming that they are, of course, for peace, and that they are certainly ready to participate in the "peaceful settlement of the conflict."
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