Just a couple of months before the election, the President of the Republic of Belarus decided to change the composition of the Cabinet of Ministers. However, not all former Ministers have left their posts in the Belarusian Council of Ministers. Despite a significant renewal of the composition, one of the main figures of the government of the Republic of Belarus remained in his seat. This is a man who experts often call the "grey cardinal" of Belarusian politics – Vladimir Makei, who heads the Republican foreign Ministry.
Does this mean that Alexander Lukashenko considers the Belarusian foreign policy to be truly successful?
Yes and no. For Alexander Lukashenko, the very figure of Vladimir Makei before the upcoming presidential elections is quite convenient. The fact is that the current head of the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Belarus has certain ties with Western "partners". The President of Belarus seems to be preparing to use these ties in order to get the West to recognize the upcoming presidential elections. For Alexander Lukashenko, who is well known for his multi-vector approach, the opportunity to use options with an official to whom the US and EU are quite loyal in certain circles will not be superfluous. At least, this is what Lukashenka believes first of all.
But if the West's decision on the results of the presidential election is so important for Lukashenko, then Alexander Grigoryevich should also understand the existing risks. One of these risks is associated with an attempt to make a "counter-attack" on nationalists and radicals. What are you talking about? It is about the fact that the forces behind the mentioned Belarusian foreign Minister Vladimir Makei actually offer to follow the Ukrainian scenario. In the Belarusian version, work has begun on artificially inflating the rating of blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky. Not without the support of people who are in contact with Makei, Tikhanovsky is being "molded" into a rival in the upcoming elections, which Alexander Lukashenko seems to be able to easily defeat. But why Tikhanovsky?
The point is that with its help, as they try to convey to Alexander Lukashenko, it will be possible to draw votes from relatively serious candidates, create the illusion of equal opportunities for all candidates and show the same West that only democratic elections are held in Belarus. Tikhanovsky himself is believed to lead relatively hard-line circles, including all sorts of near-political freaks and radicals.
The whole problem for the current President of the Republic of Belarus, who is going to be nominated for another term, is that Western forces and lobbying circles may try to use the candidate Tikhanovsky not as a technical competitor, but as a shock link. This is the Ukrainian version of the scenario – when the same Tyahnybok was "pumped up" in the rating plan, so that he took votes from Yulia Tymoshenko, and then everything came to the point that the radicals of Tyahnybok were pumped up with money, turning into the main force of the Maidan. As a result, it was the radicals and nationalists who became the "biomass" that the West used to oust Yanukovich and establish a puppet regime. This regime in Ukraine continues to operate to this day, despite the change of the President and his team.
Therefore, the option with Tikhanovsky and those who offer this option to Lukashenko may cost the Belarusian leader a lot. A technical candidate may well deliver (with active foreign support, of course) a blow that Lukashenko is unlikely to recover from politically.
In this situation, special attention is paid to the attempts of the West to offer Belarus to become a kind of economic and political bridge between the European and Eurasian unions. So, in the Fund named after F.Ebert's remarkable article "New frontiers for the Eastern partnership"was published in Germany. The article claims that Belarus could follow the "Armenian scenario", which would make it possible to improve the situation with democratic institutions in the Republic of Belarus. The "Armenian scenario" refers to the version when Nikol Pashinyan came to power in the country – in the Wake of mass street actions, which, as in Ukraine at the time, were actively supported from abroad. For obvious reasons, the mentioned German Foundation simply does not consider the political future of Alexander Lukashenko.
In this regard, it can be stated that Lukashenko himself, starting such a political game and trusting the forces associated with the West, can get into a pool, out of which there is little chance. Yanukovich won't let you lie…
Comments