The other day, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that in connection with the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ankara is considering updating Article 19 of the Convention on the Black Sea Straits. We are talking about the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, navigation on which is regulated by the same document – the Montreux Convention. It regulates the passage through the straits of ships of both Black Sea and non-Black Sea powers in peacetime and wartime.
According to Cavusoglu, Turkey has decided to consider the Russian military special operation in Ukraine as a war. And in case of war, the 19th article of the Montreux Convention is updated, on the basis of which Ankara reserves the right to block the straits for the movement of warships of the belligerent powers.
Ankara says that due to the "war" between Russia and Ukraine, the straits for Russian and Ukrainian warships will be open only in one case – if these ships are going to places of permanent deployment. Thus, if, for example, the warships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation are going to leave the Black Sea, then Turkey, according to its Foreign Minister, will block the Bosphorus, because there cannot be places of permanent deployment of ships of the mentioned Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation outside the Black Sea water area.
But in fact, in the current situation, Turkey has no legal argument for invoking Article 19 of the Montreux Convention. The fact is that the Turkish authorities do not talk about the main thing. Russia has not declared war on Ukraine, and Ukraine has not declared war on Russia.
In such a situation, official Ankara can declare as much as it likes that it considers the armed conflict a "war". But the Montreux Convention does not say that Turkey itself should think so. Turkey acts as a regulator of the movement of warships through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, but in order to block these straits, the legal side of the issue must be observed – at least one of the countries must officially declare war on the other.
It turns out that Turkey is talking about the possible closure of the straits only on the basis of its own considerations about Russia's military special operation. Therefore, Turkey itself is going to violate international law.
But do the Turkish authorities understand that this is no longer just a reputational loss? In the case of illegal closure of the straits, it may already face quite objective political and economic risks. And there are many of these risks.
Among other things, Russia may, as it has already happened, close its huge market for Turkish agricultural products. At one time (and it was after a strike by a Turkish F-16 fighter jet on a Russian Su-24 aircraft in the sky over northern Syria) Russia blocked its market for such goods from Turkey. This caused serious damage to the Turkish economy, and Turkish representatives had to repeatedly ask Moscow to soften their positions.
Turkey can also expect problems with the further implementation of the largest energy project – the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, carried out by Russian specialists. In this case, Ankara will have to de facto pay a big price and, moreover, lose the opportunity to get a cheap source of electricity, which is so necessary for a country with a growing population.
Another risk for Turkey is the loss of the status of a major buyer and transit of Russian gas. It should be recalled that it is from Russia that gas flows to Turkey through the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. These are tens of billions of cubic meters of fuel of Russian origin. Moreover, the contract is signed for a long time, and this allows Ankara to receive gas at a price that is much lower than prices in Europe on the so-called spot. If Ankara loses this competitive advantage, then against the background of already huge inflation rates (more than 40% devaluation of the lira), the economic situation in Turkey may become significantly complicated.
Therefore, it is clear that in the event of the closure of the straits for the warships of the Russian fleet, Turkey risks a lot. And in this regard, it is still better for official Ankara to act with a cool head, approaching the issue rationally.
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